A blocking high-pressure system is forecast to remain in place north of Tropical Disturbance No. 1 , which is now moving over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are watching two disturbances with a medium chance of formation within the next two to five days. For example, a system that tries to organize in the western Caribbean next week might have an opportunity to move northward across Cuba and toward Florida. On the other hand, if a system tries to organize in the eastern Caribbean next week, it could still be steered northeastward or perhaps toward the northeastern islands from Puerto Rico to the Leewards. “One of the storm tracks has it going over the Yucatán Peninsula, and then going into the Gulf. That would be the worst-case scenario for us here in the United States,” Frazer explained.
The hurricane center also expects an area of low pressure will form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend. Forecasters say conditions will be good enough for the system, labeled as Disturbance 2 on the map, to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week while moving west or west-northwest over the Caribbean’s waters. Forecasters think the system, labeled as Disturbance 1 on the map, could turn into a subtropical depression within the next day or so as it heads north. The hurricane center says upper-level winds should become less favorable for development by late Saturday, with the low expected to interact with an approaching frontal system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is expected to investigate this tropical disturbance on Thursday. October ranks as the third-most-active month for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, typically producing about two named storms each year, one of which becomes a hurricane. And every other October, on average, one of those hurricanes intensifies into a “major hurricane,” achieving Category 3 or higher intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Following last week’s catastrophic strike from Hurricane Ian, the FOX Forecast Center is now monitoring two systems in the Atlantic Basin, one of which developed into a tropical depression earlier this week while the other is expected to develop soon. One of the disturbances forecasters are watching is a trough of low pressure extending over the southwest Atlantic.
Although tropical systems in the Atlantic season have seen a rather dormant season, this storm comes on the heels of Hurricanes Ian and Julia within the last month. It leveled many structures on the barrier islands from Naples to Sarasota, with winds clocking more than 150 mph in some places. The current storm in the Caribbean has a greater than 60 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone the next five days. Its current path shows it potentially churning west and northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico. With 11 named systems as of late October and a little more than a month to go, the 2022 season is running slightly below the average for this time of year of 13 named systems. However, given the current outlook for the basin over the next couple of weeks, there is potential to catch back up to that number.
Long-range forecasters say that the Caribbean Sea will remain unsettled from the first to second weeks of November with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to organize into one or more tropical systems. The chance that a system near Bermuda could become a tropical depression or storm had diminished substantially as of Saturday due to disruptive winds and the disturbance’s projected path over progressively cooler waters. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, one system is taking shape that is poised to become the next named system of the season. A broad and elongated area of low pressure centered in the far southeastern Caribbean Sea near the coast of Venezuela continues to produce an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Caribbean islands, northern South America and adjacent waters. A disturbance in the central Caribbean Sea could turn into a tropical depression as early as next week, the National Hurricane Center forecasts. Its five-day outlook has it on the same path as last month’s Hurricane Ian, which devastated the southwest Florida coast.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, additional strengthening is expected as the disturbance moves westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and toward Central America from late Friday through Sunday. The other is still a tropical disturbance that’s hugging the coastline of northern South America in the far southeastern Caribbean Sea. The system with a high depression chance carried disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the Windward Islands west-northwest for several hundred miles, according to the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 8 p.m.
“All indications are this is going to continue to move westward, and as it moves westward, it is going to encounter significant warmth in the Caribbean Sea,” FOX Weather meteorologist Jason Frazer said. Ian left more than 100 people dead, hundreds injured and hundreds of thousands displaced and without power or running water for at least more than a week. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend,” NHC stated. “It looks like there will be a pronounced dip in the jet stream in the Western states, and at the same time, an area of high pressure will build near Bermuda next weekend,” Rayno explained. “Any tropical system that develops in the western part of the Caribbean beyond week could be trouble for the U.S. and, more specifically, Florida,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is in the area of the disturbance to investigate the system.
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